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Technological and Ecological Change

Humans are creatures of habit. cheap michael kors handbags That people often avoid change even when doing so is detrimental is evident in our response to two very different situations facing us today. The first is the growth of the Internet beyond the addressing capacity of the widely utilized second Internet Protocol (IP version 4) and our progress toward deploying the third Internet Protocol (IP version 6). The second situation is global warming. In each case, society’s reaction to these situations resembles the “Kbler Ross” five stages of grief.

Some IT professionals claim that adding more layers of NAT, recovering underused addresses, and committing various acts of magic can preserve a functional IPv4 network and avoid the need to deploy IPv6 despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. However, simple mathematics shows us that this really isn true. The world’s 7 billion people will someday need approximately five addresses each just for personal devices. Another five billion addresses will be needed for shared network infrastructure, bringing the required address capacity to approximately 40 billion, but the IPv4 address space provides only 3.2 billion unicast addresses.

Similar denial of mathematical reality can be seen in those who have an economic interest in avoiding carbon taxes and other environmental restrictions. First it was the existence of warming that was disputed, but when that position became untenable, it was the cause of the warming. Because the consequences (ranging from reduced biodiversity, to rising coastlines, to the literal extinction of the human race) are so daunting, denial retrenches but persists.

Denial often comes with a hefty price tag. In the IT world, the failure of michael kors cheap web sites and service providers to adequately deploy IPv6 by the time the IPv4 address space is exhausted will result in tremendous disruption to what has become essential infrastructure for business. Keeping the IPv4 Internet functioning without new addresses to allocate will result in reduced networking performance, reliability and usability. Some signs of this can already be seen in Europe and Asia. A quick look at how the consumer Internet is implemented in India provides a harbinger if IPv6 deployment languishes at the current pace. (Note: India is one convenient example, but not the only one.) If denial had been avoided 25 years ago (when IPv6 was released and ready to begin test deployments) the coming transition would have been a non event.

Stage 2: Anger

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There have been a number of IT professionals who have expressed anger towards IPv6 transition in forms ranging from never happen to inaccurate criticisms of the new protocol based not on facts, but on convenient rumors and supposition. Many of them seem to be afraid that IPv6 cheap replica michael kors will render much of their existing IT knowledge obsolete. On the other hand, TV newscasts on global warming reveal a similar level of anger held by adherents on both sides of the issue. The global warming analog would be current Cap and Trade implementations, which merely postpone the day of reckoning.

It is safe to say that society as a whole has not yet entered this stage for either IPv6 transition or global warming (although certain individuals undoubtedly have). One possible explanation is that because the technological and ecological systems involved are so complex, the depression stage will come only when negative impacts are directly experienced, rather than simply predicted.

At the acceptance stage, reality is recognized and positive steps can be contemplated. Focus shifts from futility to engagement. Organizations that have begun their IPv6 deployments are largely Michael Kors handbag outlet in this stage or will get there pretty quickly. In terms of global warming, the growing number of companies using neutral as a selling point suggests that acceptance has begun.

Technological and ecological challenges can induce emotions similar to grief. Thankfully, acceptance of the need to transition to IPv6 can provide the motivation needed to make necessary network modifications, although disruption could still be caused by a collapse of the IPv4 Internet before the migration of all resources is complete. If all else fails, at least Google, Facebook, and World of Warcraft are all available today on IPv6! It should also be noted that transitioning to IPv6 is far easier than adopting a carbon neutral lifestyle. But in areas both computational and environmental, failure to act is going to make the future much replica cheap Michael Kors more exciting than if decisive action had been taken earlier on.

Owen DeLong is an IPv6 Evangelist and Director of Professional Services at Hurricane Electric and fake cheap Michael kors handbags a member of the ARIN Advisory Council. Owen brings more than 25 years of industry experience.

Despite those so called “extreme costs” it is instructive to know that most smartphones are already behind carrier grade NAT, and that some large ISPs, notably British Telecom and Verizon DSL, are cheap michael kors bags making the choice to deploy multi level NAT.

If you are right, and these extreme costs of multi level NAT materialize, then they will provide the natural incentive to transition to IPv6. If I am right, and technological transitions are driven by user demand, and that users do not see the problems with NAT that you describe, then we are in for a continuation of this 15 year long transition that has netted us 2% of Internet traffic to date. Maybe we can stay in the state of Denial for another 15 years?

To put your comments in an accurate context, however, one must recognize the following:

1. Internet on phones has been so traditionally awful that the current state of NAT on them is an improvement over previous iterations. Nobody expects the full rich internet experience of wired on their phone, or, if they do, they are used to disappointment.

2. Verizon has provided an opt out URL and also has widely deployed IPv6 to those same customers they are starting to multi layer NAT. They are most definitely viewing NAT as a stop gap solution while waiting for their subscribers to catch up on IPv6.

It’s certainly possible (though I think it unlikely) that IPv4 can survive another 15 years as the lingua franca of the internet. Yes, there will be pockets of IPv4 here and there for many years to come, but as a global protocol, it is already a declining portion of the internet and that decline is already beginning to accelerate.

In reality, most of that 2% has been gained in the last year and growth appears to be continuing to accelerate. Some universities that have fully deployed IPv6 are seeing upwards of 60% IPv6 traffic, so there is enough content out there that IPv6 made available to eyeballs can make a huge difference in traffic ratios very quickly.

As to the multi level NAT, no, it doesn’t provide everything we need.

Sure, if you’re happy being a second class consumer only half citizen of the internet, then you can live behind multi level NAT just fine. OTOH, if you want the ability to participate on an equal level in a peer to peer network, NAT fails badly. Additionally, NAT has a number of other disadvantages compared to IPv6.

Those disadvantages include, but are not limited to:

Cost Maintaining all of the infrastructure for those multiple layers of NAT is very expensive. Maintaining staff to troubleshoot them and the additional complexities of that troubleshooting are another multiplier in cheap Michael Kors the cost equation. Finally, you have to multiply cheap michael kors in the cost of the difficulty of tracking down miscreants and abuse through all those layers of NAT.

Reliability NAT is a stateful translation mechanism. This means that each layer of NAT becomes a form of single point of failure. Putting multiple layers of single points of failure into the network is not a benefit IMNSHO.

Geolocation For various reasons of scale, it is unlikely that multi layer NAT will result in the user having a particularly local source IP address on the public internet after all those layers. As amusing as it is to see a list of restaurants in Denver on Yelp when I’m hungry in cheap Michael Kors California, it’s not all that useful.

End to End and Peer to Peer capabilities Rendezvous nodes doe a decent job of working around a single layer of NAT on either side (user >NAT >Rendezvous

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